It amazes me that Globalists (people that don’t necessarily have allegiance to any country or culture except profit-at-all-cost) started talking about post-covid economies in Africa back in May. Of course, meetings were held on zoom with high profile Africans but with public access . How is it that some outside of Africa are busy strategizing on post-Covid business now as then when the rest of us are scared into our households either by imposition or choice?

What do they know that we don’t? How is it that international investors are busy buying bonds, companies and giving priority loans to banks and financial institutions in Africa? The frenzy started in March where government bonds were oversubscribed and bold loans started flowing TOWARDS a pandemic; not AWAY but into Africa. Confused? Hang in there. Usually, in a disaster or pandemic (as ‘dire’ as the one daily broadcasted on our TVs even though epidemiological numbers in Kenya and most Africa tells a different story even in the so called second wave) investors sell their assests and hide the money in government bonds. In logical finance, they should be taking off from Africa going by the prevaling broadcasted fear and direness. They are not. Hmmm! Internationally, investors usually run for safety in U.S. bonds or treasuries. Instead of running away from Africa, they are jostling towards Africa even as we get bormbanded with fear on our airwaves to stay scared indoors and away from our businesses. Did we miss some hope inspiring news in March through June? Not really? All we know is that we were expected to die in millions but thankfully, we didn’t. Remember the virus has an incubation of 2 weeks so it’s safe to assume it worked through our congested places months ago ( that’s why it’s confounding to talk of surges and second wave because there was no waves and surges in Kenya or Africa in the first place.) As such, if international investors think we all will be in confins in the near future, they would not be rushing to invest or more precisely buying up our companies at record numbers. They would not be giving senior debt with certain telling conditions on which SMEs should get loans when extended to banks. Let that sink in.

What a timing! Each continent has their scheduled NEW ABNORMAL but my focus is Africa. I am informed by the investors’ contrarion actions in the market place. In finance, actions in the market place by those in the know helps us to proximate the future they seem to clearly see or know. First, grind the economies to a halt via fear which didn’t scared Tanzanians and their brave leader who have exuded unparalleled patriotism and admirable Africaness. The apocalypse that was used to scare us into a devastated economy didn’t happen even in congested places we call home in Nairobi that are impossible to social distance accompanied by dry taps and masks on necks and 2 feet apart in Matatus. Let me clarify here, the disease is REAL but there is more going on beyond the disease or necessitated by it. Thats my interest here. Even when we know someone who has been sick or died from the virus, it’s not heartless for us to ask questions that beg to be asked. To ponder on what is going on.

The regretable lockdown left us cash strapped companies most of them now belly-up or squarely in the hands of international investors. This is how they switched hands. It doesn’t matter how much a company has in assests if those assests cannot be converted into cash quickly. When the bills come due (wages, power, interest on other loans etc) and there is no cash coming in especially in a pandemic due to low or non existent customer traffic, the company enters what we call technical bankruptcy. Very few Companies in Kenya have online capabilities that would have ensured some cash to keep afloat in lockdown even with the network balloons in the air. Those that have it are not Kenyan and they faired quite well… remember Buy Kenya Build Kenya? Companies financial agility is tethered to their working capital not the buildings in UpperHill or tracks of land in the middle of nowhere. If there is a mismatch between cash-inflow and out-flow, a crisis ensues. To remedy this, companies usually turn to their banks for a loan to pay their bills or rely on earlier arranged line of credit.

When banks extend the loan in this situation, in essence what they have is the PRIORITY to buy up the company’s assests if or when it goes bankrupt. Think of a case where the bank knows that the company may not have income from sales or operations due to say a pandemic or more precisely a locked down economy. In essence, the bank would simply be buying the company for below market rate price ahead of everyone. In other words, priority loans or senior debt is an option for the bank or investor to buy a company they are giving a loan in the future. In finance, we call it a call option.

So far this sound like a normal every day business transaction. But suppose the bank is owned by international investor who has shown interest (or perhaps his friends) in buying your company up. This would immediately cease from being an normal transaction to a well choreographed event. In March and it’s neighborhood , banks in Africa received senior loans from international banks and other investors. The banks and companies that accepted these loans in essence sold themselves in advance to those who extended the loans. This debt has clauses to either convert it shareholdings or the first priority to buy prime assests in case of bankruptcy. Either way, wealth is transfer is sealed or most likely.

In hindsight, there was no need to lockdown the Kenyan economy as wells as most of Africans countries. That is what I urged until voice went hoarse to no avail. Tanzania led the way in this brave move and their economy is in a better shape with the same LOW numbers as other African countries. Magufuli seemed to understand Kibera was never New York. Protocols in the New York would never be effective in the slum or the congested places of our dwelling. Our protocols should have reflected our realities; not advocating for careless but acutely aware of the reality of our congested dwellings and matatus whose a 3ft apart is not what saved us. But we locked down our economy in our thoughtless apping mode. We ran from a charging bull straight into a cliff.

When the international investors holds forums where words like post-Covid or the greatest reset, it makes you wonder if someone is holding the reset button? Are we so gullible? Did the promise of debt forgiveness or debt holiday inform spoon-feed lockdown that created the devasted economy that we now have?

On the onset of this pandemic, Central Bank of Kenya ordered all banks in Kenya to submit their succession plans incase elderly CEOs and Board members suddenly died. Thankfully, African death rate has remained low and the plan though wise was never necessary. But pause and think aloud with me. With a corporate arena and government that is not age-diversified even when 75% population of Kenya is less than 35years of age, what happens if we see this SUSPICIOUS second wave take Senior corporate and government officials in Africa? It would be equivalent to loss of all Generals in a major war. It would be plunder time with zero resistance as the novices alive try to figure out how to navigate a complex global world for no opportunity was accorded to them. I am not wishing or contemplating anyone’s demise but CBK order made me conscious of this serious national security vulnerability. Wouldn’t this be the greatest wealth transfer? The transfer of a nation and all its powers to others. The transfer not from the elderly to their sons and daughters but to the West and East but mostly West. Is this the real meaning of the greatest reset. Are we so helplessly at the mercy of others outside of Africa? Does getting a cut for collaborators in this great wealth transfer justify the sacrifice of an entire generation or two for peanuts?

I am seeing smoke screens, the virus seems to me like the smoke that screen. I am an economist with a clinician’s mind; beyond the symptoms is always the root cause of what we see. Thats what I am looking for. That’s what we should be looking for. To wear a vest in the snow doesn’t save you from hypothermia even when it’s mandated. In Africa, it’s not the vest that has saved us from dying or getting sick, it’s our youthful population! We must protect our elderly and the sick but the youthful African is the world’s mine for the next 50 years. No one is willing to kill the mine on which the world economic growth is pegged on. But I am sure they will make examples with a few to scares us into a planned way of life. A planned wealth transfer? A planned reset? The great reset! The great new ABNORMAL!!!!

Robert Mwangi, MBA is the Author of the Books DOLLAR ALTAR and the newly released one FIVE FINGERS