I was thinking, since it’s projected that most of us are likely to get the illness; presenting with only mild symptoms. Well, like Brian or Brenda in Kenya or Tom Hanks and others around the globe. Additionally, since the rationale behind flattening the curve is not geared towards reducing the numbers (though it might) but spreading them over a longer period so as not to overwhelm the healthcare system with a sharp peak. Here in Kenya, should we be worried about overwhelming a healthcare system that, as it is or will be, is no way equipped to handle this in our case? Let’s be realistic, we only have 400 ICU beds in the entire nation. Several counties have zero ICU beds. Even with additional 1000 that we have been told exist somewhere, it’s still equivalent to facing a lion with a rungu or fighting an inferno with a cup.
If we all or most of us will eventually get it as predicted, should we be as afraid as we are? Isn’t it probably best to ask ONLY the people who are most susceptible that is, those with co-morbidities and the elderly to strictly stay indoors; while the rest of us go about our business. I am saying we throw caution to the wind? Not in the least! We will still keep distance, wash hands, sanitize, not touch our faces and wear masks. The disease is real but we will continue to do what we MUST.
Our study of other countries’ cases should be to figure out who amongst us is most vulnerable. As it is, we already know that people with diabetes, high blood pressure, asthma, HIV, AIDS and the ELDERLY are presenting with severe symptoms. We will seek to understand if there are other illnesses which would make someone most susceptible or present with severe symptoms and develop precautions that are specific to this population. Our planning and continued preparations for what is ahead will be focused but will taking full consideration of our reality with a sober head. This is borne out of triage ethos and practice. In medicine, triage is cognizant of reality and human limitations and directs actions on where they are likely to be most effective instead of responding in thoughtless and haphazard manner. That’s what guides us to declare patients Dead on Arrival or tell you there is nothing that can be done instead of rushing them to ICU and practice what we call futile medicine. We are not heartless, we are compassionate but reality and acute awareness of our limitations guides us.
Likewise, as a nation, we ought not to respond with blanket measures just because that’s what other countries are doing. Every country is tweaking it’s response based on it’s sets of multifaceted realities. i.e their healthcare capacity, resources, demographics, comorbidities, believe it or not even political realities etc. Some of the nations like the U.S. that are worst hit by COVID -19 are also nation’s that lead the world in diabetes, hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. Thus, their response is specific and consistent with that reality.
Therefore, to simply transplant or copy paste their response to Corona Virus in Kenya is ill informed and mistakenly assumes that we have the same reality. If Corona cases were only being cured by brain surgery and we didn’t have a single brain surgeon in Kenya, it will be foolhardy to create theatres or operating rooms just because that’s what everyone is doing. No starving man ever filled his stomach with soil just to have something in his tummy or to be seen to be doing something. We should only do what we can and it must also make sense in our situation.
It will be foolhardy to allow this to escalate into an economic collapse which might be followed by a total social collapse; probably worse than the virus’ effects and devastation. A situation that will obviously create the exact expontial growth in infections that we were attempting to stop in the first place. In any case, don’t we still have the essential workers going to work? Is it time to recalibrate our measures to reflect our reality? It’s time to rethink our strategy because setting up theaters with no surgeons does not count for wisdom or leadership.
Do you have other creative ways that’s specific to our situation?
Leave your thoughts here
Written by Robert Mwangi, MBA. Author of the book DOLLAR ALTAR
© Afrisponsible.com
Thought provoking! In self-quarantine, 6 more days. Took last flight from Kenya WED last week. As of now I feel totally fine, following recommendations. Major concerns with how Kenya is aping the US model in confronting COVID-19. As of NOW the magnitude of what is about to happen in Kenya calls for individual drastic moves to address personal/family basic needs. It's a moment to ask "How can I/my family (in my/our circumstances) most effectively find shelter from the STORM? Where can I/we set up Noah's Ark for 40days, 40 nights with water, corn, beans, fire, most basic items. For those who can flee the congested areas, dry water pipes, simply FLEE! EVEN IF IT TAKES WALKING! Now that things are as is! Isolation areas should be spread out in every county and Age-old creative interventions for flu PROCLAIMED ON THE ROOFTOPS! Personal Prevention & Intervention declared! Make masks from scarfs, any cloth available! Hands off face! keep distance! Wash hands! Hospitals will be slaughter houses, no good idea! Government should focus on how to effect ways of safely accessing basic needs during the FLOOD.
I tend to agree. We have to fight the battle which we have a chance of winning. Social distancing is not tenable when many live hand to mouth. What good is it to flatten the curve when even a flat curve would overwhelm the system?
Should get to Mutahi Kagwe's ears. Indeed we need to apply solutions based on our unique capabilities as a country and our demographics. It is a good thing our population confers the normal distribution statistically implying majority of us are between ages 16- 45 which will ensure survival even in cases of extreme mortality. We therefore need to ensure that such active population is well utilized to keep key systems running to avert a total economy collapse.